A high number of complaints about the Texas team (which exponentially increased following the KSU and OU loss Saturday) involved how Texas could produce such a performance (in the negative sense) with what is frequently described as "top 5 talent." With this short explanation, you may see why this Texas team may not actually have "top 5 talent." At least not yet.

The logic I will use for this is based on scout.com recruiting rankings by team over the last 6 years, but more specifically 2002, 2003, and 2004. The best way I found to guesstimate how good a team might be (especially Texas) is through how the 4th year class of that season (the 2002 class for the 2005 team, 03 for 06, etc.) was ranked when recruited.

Example of Texas with great talent: 2002. The class was unanimous #1 overall, and the best player of that class is Vincent Young. We all know how he turned out, but that class produced so many other NFL caliber players, and led to the national title in 2005. Ohio St had the #3 class, and had the #3 team in the nation. USC is a bit harder to guess, because they play so many freshman and so many players leave early, so a combination of their #12 '02 class with their #1 03 class puts them in that upper-tier. Georgia was #9 that year and won the SEC. 2002 isn't as efficient a guess as 2003, but it was so for Texas. Other BCS teams included Penn State (#16), Notre Dame (#13), West Virginia (#33), and Virginia Tech (#45). So, good example with Texas, bad with others, but not awful outside of WVU and VT.

2003 was surprisingly accurate with the BCS teams and Texas prediction. USC was #1 and finished #4, LSU was #2 and finished #3, Oklahoma won the Big 12 and was #3 in the 03 class, Florida was #4 and won the BCS title, and Notre Dame made a BCS game with the #5 class. Michigan at #8 and Ohio State at #25 also were in. Louisville was off at #48 but had a top QB prospect in Brian Brohm, which is part of another explanation. Texas was #14 and finished #13 in the polls, so that was more accurate than fans may want to believe. Ohio State's ranking obviously doesn't fit, but that had more to do with the number of recruits than the quality. The top 7 classes by avg rating per recruit goes as follows: Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, USC. All BCS teams. Not a coincidence.

Another pitfall is the other Florida schools, who has had top 15 classes (and in the next point, top 5 classes) but have all struggled mightily for either coaching, law enforcement, or overrating HS football in Florida.
The top 2004 classes goes as follows: 1. USC (#2 now), 2. LSU (#1 now), 3. Miami (improving but not ranked at moment), 4. Florida St (see Miami), 5. Michigan (still could win the big 10), 6. Georgia (#12), 7. Oklahoma (#10 but will probably finish higher), 8. Florida (#9), 9. Tennessee (no explanation), 10. Texas (#19), 11. Ohio St (#4). So the fourth and fifth year classes in 07 were not "top 5 talent," barely even top 10. Texas tends to coach to their recruiting class, which is better than schools like Miami and Florida St and Tennessee, but not as great as Cal and the top-tier Big East schools, who play up from their classes.

That means that this team should be a good team, but won't be a national title group. They'll probably get their 10 wins barely like last year, but this season seems more hectic in general, so 10-3 could still get a top-12 ranking. If they beat OU and/or Nebraska, that'll help their standing as well. Unfortunately for Texas fans, the 05 class was rated #13, so another year similar to this one may be in order. But, thinking a couple years down the road, thanking VY for that, the 06 and 07 groups that show in 09 and 10 will be back to the promised land area, as those classes were both ranked #3 overall, behind USC and Florida.

A key contributor to what makes teams better or worse than their spot is the point of key marquee recruits that headline a class, as Vince Young was in 02. USC's headliner in 03 was John David Booty, who may not play at a Heisman level but is consistent enough to produce a top-2 team. Adrian Peterson was an example of what took OU's 04-06 teams up a notch, and how much his injuries hurt in the 8-4 season that doesn't officially count as of right now. Florida's big classes had a Chris Leak and a Tim Tebow in 03 and 06. Ohio State had a Ted Ginn in 04 and Chris Wells in 06. Michigan had Chad Henne in 04 and Ryan Mallett in 07, though Mike Hart has a lot to do with that himself, but he wasn't the star recruit. LSU had both Early Doucet and Glenn Dorsey (2 1st-round picks) in their 04 group, and JaMarcus Russell in their 03 group, as well as UT-Almost recruit Ryan Perriloux in 05. Texas hasn't had a name like that since Vince. There's a point that a lot of these are QBs. They make a difference, especially when they're upperclassmen. Marquee recruits in the last 5 years:
2002 (with rank overall): Vince Young (#4, #1 QB), Aaron Harris (#14) Justin Blalock (#17, #1 OL), Larry Dibbles (#36), Edorian McCulough (#40), Rod Wright (#42)
This group had 9 in the top 100, which was absurd. Oddly enough, four of those nine did very little, as McCullough and Marquis Johnson (#54) transferred early on, Brian Pickryl (#63) retired from injury, and Marco Martin (#66) never started.
2003: Robert Killebrew (#43), Tarell Brown (#63), Tim Crowder (#70), Tony Hills (#76)
Note: All 4 of those guys will play in the NFL, only Crowder has been a true game-changer, though Hills will probably be an All-American this year
2004: Frank Okam (#25, #3 DT), Drew Kelson (#30, #1 S), Bobby Tatum (#77)
Note: Okam has lived up to his rank, Kelson was ruined by coaches who moved him around too much, and Tatum transfered after 1 year. Okam's impact versus Vince? Not close.
2005: Roy Miller (#34, #5 DT), Chris Brown (#84)
Note: Perilloux was #2 OVR, Fred Rouse was #7, Martellus Bennett was #26, all 3 had Texas in their final 2. Brown transferred last year. Jamaal Charles is the current star of the class and was in the rivals100, but was the #14 RB on Scout. Colt was not in the top 100, and was the #14 QB on Scout, but in the mid-20s on Rivals. He was really supposed to be Perilloux's backup, and then probably Snead's, but played well enough last year to get Snead to transfer.
2006: Sergio Kindle (#6, #1 LB), Eddie Jones (#20, #1 DE), Deon Beasley (#23, #2 CB)
Note: This is the #3 overall group, and all 3 of these players may still be very good, Sergio's off-the-field issues and injuries (sprained ankle kept him out against KSU) hurt his development, but he's got 2 1/2 years left. Jones is also currently hurt, but has shown his potential already this year, with an INT and a sack. Beasley's been picked on some but is the nickel back and may return some balls as he's the backup KR right now. Jevan Snead was #68 and the #7 QB, but has transferred to Ole Miss, where I'm sure he'll be good in 08, 09, and 10.
2007: Tray Allen (#8, #1 OL), Curtis Brown (#14, #3 CB), DT Dre Jones (#30), John Chiles (#31, #4 WR)
Note: Another #3 overall, as you could tell by 4 of the top 31. If Chiles was rated as a QB, he'd probably still be in the top 100, but not as high. He named himself "the leader of the 07 class," but Tray Allen is probably the real choice, who already has been a beast at right tackle... against Rice. It's still early. Wouldn't surprise me to see him start at left tackle next year after Hills graduates. Chiles could change the leader choice if he plays up to his statement though. Curtis Brown is already the 2nd-team corner, and can fly, but hasn't developed his body much yet. Dre Jones may be done before he starts after getting arrested on a robbery charge. He's redshirting, maybe permanently.
Looking ahead...
The 2008 class is currently full of solid players but desperately lacking on big-timers. The highest rated player so far is Aaron Williams (local product from McNeil) another CB that is at #23. There isn't another commitment before #57, and OU already locked up the 3 best players from Texas, something Texas fans will hate. However, there is slight hope, as a VY clone, Terrell Pryor from Pennsylvania, has Texas in his final six. 6-6, 220, 4.4 speed, long strides, likes to juke right, fan of the deep ball (sound like Vince?). It's probably futile as Pryor is really essentially a 15% chance to commit, and Mack's had issues with out-of-staters recently (Perilloux, John Brantley two notable ones), but without him, the 2011 group may have issues and be similar to this year's group as opposed to the top 3 group of the most recent years. Not looking ahead too much, am I?

So, in review. The Texas team of last year, this year, and next year actually doesn't have as much talent as a lot of fans perceive, a top 15 bunch no doubt, but not necessarily top 10. I would be perfectly happy as a Horns fan to win the Big 12 with that level of recruiting class, especially since OU's been ahead all 3 years. Especially when OU's got a 1st year starter playing QB, Texas has done well recently when that's been the case.