Texas Longhorns
26-5, 13-3 Big 12
RPI: 5
Projected Seed: 1-3

Seed Explanation
Texas has about the best list of wins under their resume as any team in the country as well as tying amongst the tops for wins vs RPI Top 50 teams (11, tied with UNC). Also being the co-conference champion in the Big 12 doesn't hurt. The reason they could drop is the five losses, including two blowout losses to Missouri and Texas A&M. If they win the Big 12 tourney, they have a decent shot of moving up to a 1-seed, if they lose to the winner of Oklahoma St-Texas Tech, then they'll be a 2 and might fall to a 3, having six losses. A 2-seed is more likely.

Key Wins
Home: Kansas, Oklahoma, St. Mary's, Baylor, Texas A&M
Away: Tennessee (in New Jersey), UCLA, Kansas St, Baylor, Oklahoma

Key Losses
Home: Wisconsin
Road: Missouri, Michigan St (in Detroit), Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Prime Time Players

Well, it starts and ends with DJ Augustin. Augustin has led the way for the Horns all year, averaging 19 points a game as well as leading the Big 12 with about 6 assists per game as well. Alongside junior AJ Abrams, who provides 16 a game himself, they make up one of the top backcourts in the country. Augustin will probably be a member of any 1st-team All-America group and is widely considered among the best PG's in the country. Abrams also has a reputation of being among the deadliest shooters in the nation himself.

Those guards are aided by the frontcourt play of budding start Damion James and the much-improved Connor Atchley. James is among the top rebounders in the country, and is 2nd in the Big 12 at 10.7 rebounds a game. He also developed a dominant jumper over the offseason and has shot 42% from 3-point range this year. Atchley has been a surprising key contributor to the Horns, averaging 10 points and 5 rebounds,while leading the Big 12 with over 2 blocked shots a game. He's also been incredibly efficient from the field, making 58% of his shots, 47% from 3. His best performance of the year was a 16 point, 4 block performance against Kansas where he went 6-6 from the field, 4-4 from 3.

Justin Mason and Gary Johnson make up the last part of the core, both being large contributors in their own way. Mason was named to the All-Big 12 team and is called the "ultimate glue guy" by Big 12 coach of the year Rick Barnes. Johnson adds the toughness Texas started to struggle with in losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin when he returned from an unspecified heart condition in early January, and has been a solid sixth man, providing a low post presence and interior rebounding.

Strengths
The defense for Texas has been terrific this season, holding down UCLA, beating them at their own game, and holding opponents to 39% from the field. Experts like to say the NCAAs are determined by the guards, and Texas can matchup with anyone with Augustin and Abrams, along with the versatile Mason. Texas also can overcome poor days by any of their big scorers, going 3-0 during a three game stretch when Augustin shot 15%, and winning their last two games of the year despite desolate performances by Abrams (3-15 against Oklahoma St Sunday).

Perhaps the biggest strength for Texas is their efficiency. And not in terms of shooting. Texas is the best team in the nation when it comes to turning the ball over, only doing so about 9 times a game this year. They also commit among the fewest fouls in the nation as well, committing 90 less than their opponents.

Finally, they are as battle-tested as anyone in the country and have the resume to prove it. Very few can say they've beaten top 8 programs like Kansas, Tennessee, and UCLA, that's not to mention coming within a last-second three of beating Wisconsin, who's ranked in the top 8 themselves but were relatively unknown as a powerhouse at the time.

Weaknesses

Texas has lapses at times, and they've struggled to finish off opponents the way the other top teams in the country do. They don't dominate true road games, struggling to hold off opponents like Iowa State and Oklahoma State, and there are no home games in the tournament. Their only bad losses came on the road, and both were mostly inspired by poor defensive performances.

That brings some comparisons to last year's team, who had a wealth of talent like consensus player of the year Kevin Durant, but they didn't dominate teams, and they were blown away on a neutral court to a good, but not great USC team.

They also are a very inconsistent shooting team and rely too much on the jumper, which is always dangerous. Fortunately, the improvement on the defensive end helps keep them in games they may not have stayed in last year when they couldn't buy a bucket. Interior scoring is still not consistent, even with Gary Johnson playing about 20 minutes a game these days.

Finally, depth is worse than any of the other contenders, as Kansas, Duke, UNC, Tennessee, Georgetown, UCLA and Memphis all go at least 8-deep in every game they play. Texas often only plays six players in any close 2nd half games they play. While they haven't been killed by this yet, the Big 12 tourney will be trying playing in consecutive games, and playing twice in three days in the tourney won't be easy, though they went through a three-week stretch where they played Saturday-Monday each week, and went 6-0.

Prediction

Which region Texas plays in will actually be very influential on how good they may do. If they do come in as a one-seed, they could very easily go to the Midwest or West region, far away from home in Detroit or Phoenix. However, if they go as a #2 seed in the South region (where Memphis it is commonly assumed will be #1), they will go to Houston, less than 200 miles from home. Texas could very easily have the path of Little Rock, Houston, San Antonio, which would be the best road to a championship. Because of this, they could win the whole thing with a "neutral" run staying almost entirely in-state.

That being said, they could easily be in a pickle in their second round matchup, which would likely be a 7-10 type seed. If they have a bad shooting day and the other team shoots well, as teams like OU, Baylor, Kansas St, and A&M all would be seeded similar to that fashion and the opponent would be of that caliber, could go down quickly.

Personally, I think they will be an elite 8 team, and likely have a big-time battle against a team like Memphis, which would be a great matchup. I think in a game like that, Augustin would have issues penetrating in the lane against a 6-3 athlete like Derrick Rose, and that might be their end. Right now, I would say they're an elite 8 team, but could go all the way to the title, or get stuck at the round of 32.

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